2026
Dost, Katharina; Muraoka, Kohji; Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle; Benavidez, Rubianca; Blue, Brendon; Conland, Nic; Daughney, Chris; Semadeni-Davies, Annette; Hoang, Linh; Hooper, Anna; Kpodonu, Theodore Alfred; Marapara, Tapuwa; McDowell, Richard; Nguyen, Trung; Nguyet, Dang Anh; Norton, Ned; Özkundakci, Deniz; Pearson, Lisa; Rolinson, James; Smith, Ra; Stephens, Tom; Tamepo, Reina; Taylor, Ken; Uitregt, Vincent; Jackson, Bethanna; Sarris, Theo; Elliott, Alexander; Wicker, Jörg
Freshwater modeling in Aotearoa New Zealand: Current practice and future directions Journal Article
In: Environmental Modelling & Software, vol. 197, pp. 106820, 2026, ISSN: 1364-8152.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Altmetric | PlumX | Tags: best practice, Catchment modeling process, inland and coastal waters, machine learning, model trustworthiness, Modelling platform design, reliable machine learning, root-cause analysis, water quality
@article{DOST2026106820,
title = {Freshwater modeling in Aotearoa New Zealand: Current practice and future directions},
author = {Katharina Dost and Kohji Muraoka and Anne-Gaelle Ausseil and Rubianca Benavidez and Brendon Blue and Nic Conland and Chris Daughney and Annette Semadeni-Davies and Linh Hoang and Anna Hooper and Theodore Alfred Kpodonu and Tapuwa Marapara and Richard McDowell and Trung Nguyen and Dang Anh Nguyet and Ned Norton and Deniz \"{O}zkundakci and Lisa Pearson and James Rolinson and Ra Smith and Tom Stephens and Reina Tamepo and Ken Taylor and Vincent Uitregt and Bethanna Jackson and Theo Sarris and Alexander Elliott and J\"{o}rg Wicker},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815225005043},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106820},
issn = {1364-8152},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-01-01},
urldate = {2026-01-01},
journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
volume = {197},
pages = {106820},
abstract = {Freshwater modeling is vital for addressing environmental and societal challenges. In two workshops preceding this article, we revealed issues in current modeling practices in New Zealand, with a focus on catchment-level water quality modelling. Predominant were low trust in models, lack of transparency, and models unfit for purpose. This article uses a root-cause analysis to explore these issues, identify causes, and propose solutions. We find that current best practices and research are a good foundation but insufficient to fulfill our freshwater research and management needs. We advocate for long-term national strategies with centralized funding, standardized documentation, data, models, evaluation techniques, and communication methods, along with a centralized open-access platform for collaboration. Our vision is to streamline modeling projects, enhance the accessibility and reliability of models, and foster more effective decision-making processes for the sustainable management of freshwater ecosystems.},
keywords = {best practice, Catchment modeling process, inland and coastal waters, machine learning, model trustworthiness, Modelling platform design, reliable machine learning, root-cause analysis, water quality},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
2024
Graffeuille, Olivier; Lehmann, Moritz; Allan, Matthew; Wicker, Jörg; Koh, Yun Sing
Lake by Lake, Globally: Enhancing Water Quality Remote Sensing with Multi-Task Learning Models Unpublished Forthcoming
Forthcoming, ISSN: 1556-5068.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Altmetric | PlumX | Tags: inland and coastal waters, machine learning, multi-task learning, remote sensing, water quality
@unpublished{graffeuille2024lake,
title = {Lake by Lake, Globally: Enhancing Water Quality Remote Sensing with Multi-Task Learning Models},
author = {Olivier Graffeuille and Moritz Lehmann and Matthew Allan and J\"{o}rg Wicker and Yun Sing Koh },
doi = {10.2139/ssrn.4762429},
issn = {1556-5068},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-03-17},
urldate = {2024-03-17},
abstract = {The estimation of water quality from satellite remote sensing data in inland and coastal waters is an important yet challenging problem. Recent collaborative efforts have produced large global datasets with sufficient data to train machine learning models with high accuracy. In this work, we investigate global water quality remote sensing models at the granularity of individual water bodies. We introduce Multi-Task Learning (MTL), a machine learning technique that learns a distinct model for each water body in the dataset from few data points by sharing knowledge between models. This approach allows MTL to learn water body differences, leading to more accurate predictions. We train and validate our model on the GLORIA dataset of in situ measured remote sensing reflectance and three water quality indicators: chlorophyll$a$, total suspended solids and coloured dissolved organic matter. MTL outperforms other machine learning models by 8-31% in Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and 12-34% in Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Training on a smaller dataset of chlorophyll$a$ measurements from New Zealand lakes with simultaneous Sentinel-3 OLCI remote sensing reflectance further demonstrates the effectiveness of our model when applied regionally. Additionally, we investigate the performance of machine learning models at estimating the variation in water quality indicators within individual water bodies. Our results reveal that overall performance metrics overestimate the quality of model fit of models trained on a large number of water bodies due to the large between-water body variability of water quality indicators. In our experiments, when estimating TSS or CDOM, all models excluding multi-task learning fail to learn within-water body variability, and fail to outperform a naive baseline approach, suggesting that these models may be of limited usefulness to practitioners monitoring water quality. Overall, our research highlights the importance of considering water body differences in water quality remote sensing research for both model design and evaluation. },
keywords = {inland and coastal waters, machine learning, multi-task learning, remote sensing, water quality},
pubstate = {forthcoming},
tppubtype = {unpublished}
}
