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Forecasting severe respiratory disease hospitalizations using machine learning algorithms

Steffen Albrecht, David Broderick, Katharina Dost, Isabella Cheung, Nhung Nghiem, Milton Wu, Johnny Zhu, Nooriyan Poonawala-Lohani, Sarah Jamison, Damayanthi Rasanathan, Sue Huang, Adrian Trenholme, Alicia Stanley, Shirley Lawrence, Samantha Marsh, Lorraine Castelino, Janine Paynter, Nikki Turner, Peter McIntyre, Pat Riddle, Cameron Grant, Gillian Dobbie, Jörg Wicker: Forecasting severe respiratory disease hospitalizations using machine learning algorithms. In: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, vol. 24, iss. 1, pp. 293, 2024, ISSN: 1472-6947.

Abstract

Forecasting models predicting trends in hospitalization rates have the potential to inform hospital management during seasonal epidemics of respiratory diseases and the associated surges caused by acute hospital admissions. Hospital bed requirements for elective surgery could be better planned if it were possible to foresee upcoming peaks in severe respiratory illness admissions. Forecasting models can also guide the use of intervention strategies to decrease the spread of respiratory pathogens and thus prevent local health system overload. In this study, we explore the capability of forecasting models to predict the number of hospital admissions in Auckland, New Zealand, within a three-week time horizon. Furthermore, we evaluate probabilistic forecasts and the impact on model performance when integrating laboratory data describing the circulation of respiratory viruses.

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@article{Albrecht2024forecasting,
title = {Forecasting severe respiratory disease hospitalizations using machine learning algorithms},
author = {Steffen Albrecht and David Broderick and Katharina Dost and Isabella Cheung and Nhung Nghiem and Milton Wu and Johnny Zhu and Nooriyan Poonawala-Lohani and Sarah Jamison and Damayanthi Rasanathan and Sue Huang and Adrian Trenholme and Alicia Stanley and Shirley Lawrence and Samantha Marsh and Lorraine Castelino and Janine Paynter and Nikki Turner and Peter McIntyre and Pat Riddle and Cameron Grant and Gillian Dobbie and J\"{o}rg Wicker},
url = {https://bmcmedinformdecismak.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12911-024-02702-0},
doi = {10.1186/s12911-024-02702-0},
issn = {1472-6947},
year  = {2024},
date = {2024-10-09},
urldate = {2024-10-07},
journal = {BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making},
volume = {24},
issue = {1},
pages = {293},
abstract = {Forecasting models predicting trends in hospitalization rates have the potential to inform hospital management during seasonal epidemics of respiratory diseases and the associated surges caused by acute hospital admissions. Hospital bed requirements for elective surgery could be better planned if it were possible to foresee upcoming peaks in severe respiratory illness admissions. Forecasting models can also guide the use of intervention strategies to decrease the spread of respiratory pathogens and thus prevent local health system overload. In this study, we explore the capability of forecasting models to predict the number of hospital admissions in Auckland, New Zealand, within a three-week time horizon. Furthermore, we evaluate probabilistic forecasts and the impact on model performance when integrating laboratory data describing the circulation of respiratory viruses.},
keywords = {influenza, machine learning, time series, time series forecasting},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
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