2023
4.
Roeslin, Samuel; Ma, Quincy; Chigullapally, Pavan; Wicker, Jörg; Wotherspoon, Liam
Development of a Seismic Loss Prediction Model for Residential Buildings using Machine Learning – Christchurch, New Zealand Journal Article
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 1207-1226, 2023.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Altmetric | PlumX | Tags: computational sustainability, earthquakes, machine learning
@article{Roeslin2023development,
title = {Development of a Seismic Loss Prediction Model for Residential Buildings using Machine Learning \textendash Christchurch, New Zealand},
author = {Samuel Roeslin and Quincy Ma and Pavan Chigullapally and J\"{o}rg Wicker and Liam Wotherspoon},
url = {https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/23/1207/2023/},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-03-22},
urldate = {2023-03-22},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
volume = {23},
number = {3},
pages = {1207-1226},
abstract = {This paper presents a new framework for the seismic loss prediction of residential buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand. It employs data science techniques, geospatial tools, and machine learning (ML) trained on insurance claims data from the Earthquake Commission (EQC) collected following the 2010\textendash2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES). The seismic loss prediction obtained from the ML model is shown to outperform the output from existing risk analysis tools for New Zealand for each of the main earthquakes of the CES. In addition to the prediction capabilities, the ML model delivered useful insights into the most important features contributing to losses during the CES. ML correctly highlighted that liquefaction significantly influenced buildings losses for the 22 February 2011 earthquake. The results are consistent with observations, engineering knowledge, and previous studies, confirming the potential of data science and ML in the analysis of insurance claims data and the development of seismic loss prediction models using empirical loss data.},
keywords = {computational sustainability, earthquakes, machine learning},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
This paper presents a new framework for the seismic loss prediction of residential buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand. It employs data science techniques, geospatial tools, and machine learning (ML) trained on insurance claims data from the Earthquake Commission (EQC) collected following the 2010–2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES). The seismic loss prediction obtained from the ML model is shown to outperform the output from existing risk analysis tools for New Zealand for each of the main earthquakes of the CES. In addition to the prediction capabilities, the ML model delivered useful insights into the most important features contributing to losses during the CES. ML correctly highlighted that liquefaction significantly influenced buildings losses for the 22 February 2011 earthquake. The results are consistent with observations, engineering knowledge, and previous studies, confirming the potential of data science and ML in the analysis of insurance claims data and the development of seismic loss prediction models using empirical loss data.
2020
3.
Roeslin, Samuel; Ma, Quincy; Chigullapally, Pavan; Wicker, Jörg; Wotherspoon, Liam
Feature Engineering for a Seismic Loss Prediction Model using Machine Learning, Christchurch Experience Proceedings Article
In: 17th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 2020.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: computational sustainability, data mining, earthquakes, machine learning
@inproceedings{roeslin2020feature,
title = {Feature Engineering for a Seismic Loss Prediction Model using Machine Learning, Christchurch Experience},
author = {Samuel Roeslin and Quincy Ma and Pavan Chigullapally and J\"{o}rg Wicker and Liam Wotherspoon},
url = {https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Samuel_Roeslin/publication/344503593_Feature_Engineering_for_a_Seismic_Loss_Prediction_Model_using_Machine_Learning_Christchurch_Experience/links/5f7d015a92851c14bcb36ed7/Feature-Engineering-for-a-Seismic-Loss-Prediction-Model-using-Machine-Learning-Christchurch-Experience.pdf},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-09-17},
booktitle = {17th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering},
abstract = {The city of Christchurch, New Zealand experienced four major earthquakes (MW \> 5.9) and multiple aftershocks between 4 September 2010 and 23 December 2011. This series of earthquakes, commonly known as the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), induced over NZ$40 billion in total economic losses. Liquefaction alone led to building damage in 51,000 of the 140,000 residential buildings, with around 15,000 houses left unpractical to repair. Widespread damage to residential buildings highlighted the need for improved seismic prediction tools and to better understand factors influencing damage. Fortunately, due to New Zealand unique insurance setting, up to 80% of the losses were insured. Over the entire CES, insurers received more than 650,000 claims. This research project employs multi-disciplinary empirical data gathered during and prior to the CES to develop a seismic loss prediction model for residential buildings in Christchurch using machine learning. The intent is to develop a procedure for developing insights from post-earthquake data that is subjected to continuous updating, to enable identification of critical parameters affecting losses, and to apply such a model to establish priority building stock for risk mitigation measures. The following paper describes the complex data preparation process required for the application of machine learning techniques. The paper covers the production of a merged dataset with information from the Earthquake Commission (EQC) claim database, building characteristics from RiskScape, seismic demand interpolated from GeoNet strong motion records, liquefaction occurrence from the New Zealand Geotechnical Database (NZGD) and soil conditions from Land Resource Information Systems (LRIS).},
keywords = {computational sustainability, data mining, earthquakes, machine learning},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inproceedings}
}
The city of Christchurch, New Zealand experienced four major earthquakes (MW > 5.9) and multiple aftershocks between 4 September 2010 and 23 December 2011. This series of earthquakes, commonly known as the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), induced over NZ$40 billion in total economic losses. Liquefaction alone led to building damage in 51,000 of the 140,000 residential buildings, with around 15,000 houses left unpractical to repair. Widespread damage to residential buildings highlighted the need for improved seismic prediction tools and to better understand factors influencing damage. Fortunately, due to New Zealand unique insurance setting, up to 80% of the losses were insured. Over the entire CES, insurers received more than 650,000 claims. This research project employs multi-disciplinary empirical data gathered during and prior to the CES to develop a seismic loss prediction model for residential buildings in Christchurch using machine learning. The intent is to develop a procedure for developing insights from post-earthquake data that is subjected to continuous updating, to enable identification of critical parameters affecting losses, and to apply such a model to establish priority building stock for risk mitigation measures. The following paper describes the complex data preparation process required for the application of machine learning techniques. The paper covers the production of a merged dataset with information from the Earthquake Commission (EQC) claim database, building characteristics from RiskScape, seismic demand interpolated from GeoNet strong motion records, liquefaction occurrence from the New Zealand Geotechnical Database (NZGD) and soil conditions from Land Resource Information Systems (LRIS).
2.
Roeslin, Samuel; Ma, Quincy; Juárez-Garcia, Hugon; Gómez-Bernal, Alonso; Wicker, Jörg; Wotherspoon, Liam
A machine learning damage prediction model for the 2017 Puebla-Morelos, Mexico, earthquake Journal Article
In: Earthquake Spectra, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 314-339, 2020.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Altmetric | PlumX | Tags: computational sustainability, data mining, earthquakes, machine learning
@article{roeslin2020machine,
title = {A machine learning damage prediction model for the 2017 Puebla-Morelos, Mexico, earthquake},
author = {Samuel Roeslin and Quincy Ma and Hugon Ju\'{a}rez-Garcia and Alonso G\'{o}mez-Bernal and J\"{o}rg Wicker and Liam Wotherspoon},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293020936714},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-07-30},
journal = {Earthquake Spectra},
volume = {36},
number = {2},
pages = {314-339},
abstract = {The 2017 Puebla, Mexico, earthquake event led to significant damage in many buildings in Mexico City. In the months following the earthquake, civil engineering students conducted detailed building assessments throughout the city. They collected building damage information and structural characteristics for 340 buildings in the Mexico City urban area, with an emphasis on the Roma and Condesa neighborhoods where they assessed 237 buildings. These neighborhoods are of particular interest due to the availability of seismic records captured by nearby recording stations, and preexisting information from when the neighborhoods were affected by the 1985 Michoac\'{a}n earthquake. This article presents a case study on developing a damage prediction model using machine learning. It details a framework suitable for working with future post-earthquake observation data. Four algorithms able to perform classification tasks were trialed. Random forest, the best performing algorithm, achieves more than 65% prediction accuracy. The study of the feature importance for the random forest shows that the building location, seismic demand, and building height are the parameters that influence the model output the most.},
keywords = {computational sustainability, data mining, earthquakes, machine learning},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The 2017 Puebla, Mexico, earthquake event led to significant damage in many buildings in Mexico City. In the months following the earthquake, civil engineering students conducted detailed building assessments throughout the city. They collected building damage information and structural characteristics for 340 buildings in the Mexico City urban area, with an emphasis on the Roma and Condesa neighborhoods where they assessed 237 buildings. These neighborhoods are of particular interest due to the availability of seismic records captured by nearby recording stations, and preexisting information from when the neighborhoods were affected by the 1985 Michoacán earthquake. This article presents a case study on developing a damage prediction model using machine learning. It details a framework suitable for working with future post-earthquake observation data. Four algorithms able to perform classification tasks were trialed. Random forest, the best performing algorithm, achieves more than 65% prediction accuracy. The study of the feature importance for the random forest shows that the building location, seismic demand, and building height are the parameters that influence the model output the most.
2019
1.
Roeslin, Samuel; Ma, Quincy; Wicker, Jörg; Wotherspoon, Liam
Data integration for the development of a seismic loss prediction model for residential buildings in New Zealand Proceedings Article
In: Cellier, Peggy; Driessens, Kurt (Ed.): Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, pp. 88-100, Springer International Publishing, Cham, 2019, ISBN: 978-3-030-43887-6.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Altmetric | PlumX | Tags: computational sustainability, earthquakes
@inproceedings{roeslin2019data,
title = {Data integration for the development of a seismic loss prediction model for residential buildings in New Zealand},
author = {Samuel Roeslin and Quincy Ma and J\"{o}rg Wicker and Liam Wotherspoon},
editor = {Peggy Cellier and Kurt Driessens},
url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-43887-6_8},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-030-43887-6_8},
isbn = {978-3-030-43887-6},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-09-19},
booktitle = {Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases},
pages = {88-100},
publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
address = {Cham},
abstract = {In 2010--2011, New Zealand experienced the most damaging earthquakes in its history. It led to extensive damage to Christchurch buildings, infrastructure and its surroundings; affecting commercial and residential buildings. The direct economic losses represented 20% of New Zealand's GDP in 2011. Owing to New Zealand's particular insurance structure, the insurance sector contributed to over 80% of losses for a total of more than NZ$31 billion. Amongst this, over NZ$11 billion of the losses arose from residential building claims and were covered either partially or entirely from the NZ government backed Earthquake Commission (EQC) cover insurance scheme. In the process of resolving the claims, EQC collected detailed financial loss data, post-event observations and building characteristics for each of the approximately 434,000 claims lodged following the Canterbury Earthquake sequence (CES). Added to this, the active NZ earthquake engineering community treated the event as a large scale outdoor experiment and collected extensive data on the ground shaking levels, soil conditions, and liquefaction occurrence throughout wider Christchurch. This paper discusses the necessary data preparation process preceding the development of a machine learning seismic loss model. The process draws heavily upon using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to aggregate relevant information from multiple databases interpolating data between categories and converting data between continuous and categorical forms. Subsequently, the database is processed, and a residential seismic loss prediction model is developed using machine learning. The aim is to develop a `grey-box' model enabling human interpretability of the decision steps.},
keywords = {computational sustainability, earthquakes},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inproceedings}
}
In 2010–2011, New Zealand experienced the most damaging earthquakes in its history. It led to extensive damage to Christchurch buildings, infrastructure and its surroundings; affecting commercial and residential buildings. The direct economic losses represented 20% of New Zealand’s GDP in 2011. Owing to New Zealand’s particular insurance structure, the insurance sector contributed to over 80% of losses for a total of more than NZ$31 billion. Amongst this, over NZ$11 billion of the losses arose from residential building claims and were covered either partially or entirely from the NZ government backed Earthquake Commission (EQC) cover insurance scheme. In the process of resolving the claims, EQC collected detailed financial loss data, post-event observations and building characteristics for each of the approximately 434,000 claims lodged following the Canterbury Earthquake sequence (CES). Added to this, the active NZ earthquake engineering community treated the event as a large scale outdoor experiment and collected extensive data on the ground shaking levels, soil conditions, and liquefaction occurrence throughout wider Christchurch. This paper discusses the necessary data preparation process preceding the development of a machine learning seismic loss model. The process draws heavily upon using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to aggregate relevant information from multiple databases interpolating data between categories and converting data between continuous and categorical forms. Subsequently, the database is processed, and a residential seismic loss prediction model is developed using machine learning. The aim is to develop a `grey-box’ model enabling human interpretability of the decision steps.